Trump’s losses mount.
As previously noted, Donald Trump was the biggest loser of the midterms. His heavy influence over Republican primary choices affirmed his continued dominance of the party; however, their poor showing in the general election highlighted his lack of appeal beyond his base. Republican candidates opposed by Trump or who kept their distance from him fared much better. Non-Trumpist GOP House candidates outperformed the Trumpists by five percentage points nationwide. Late-breaking election results brought more bad news for Trump—e.g., Palin’s loss and Murkowski’s win in Alaska; Lake’s loss in Arizona; reelection of the two House Republicans who voted for his impeachment and survived to the general election.
Other recent events cast further doubt on Trump’s viability as a 2024 candidate or kingmaker. His announcement of another run for president was greeted with more skepticism than enthusiasm among Republican influencers; major donors are apparently rethinking their support. Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of facing Trump again in 2024. The Justice Department’s appointment of a special counsel to investigate Trump for possible crimes is yet another blow. This and the many other investigations of Trump may energize his base but will further deter most everyone else. Things could get even worse if any investigations lead to criminal charges and, worst of all, conviction.
Democracy won.
Major concerns–both real and imagined–have arisen in recent years over the integrity of U.S. elections. The 2022 midterms did much to allay those concerns.
Voting rules. Several red states enacted laws to tighten voting procedures, motivated by (unproven) allegations of voter fraud as well as apprehension that liberalized voting procedures instituted in response to COVID went too far. Democrats voiced (dubious) outrage over these laws, accusing their proponents of racist “Jim Crow” like voter suppression. Generally strong voter turnout in 2022 confirmed that such accusations were greatly exaggerated. This was particularly true in Georgia, the prime target of voter suppression hyperbole.
Gerrymandering. Here also election results undercut the rhetoric. Gerrymandering of electoral districts has long been seen as a threat to democracy, mainly by giving unfair advantage to Republicans. Both parties engage in gerrymandering when they can get away with it; however, state courts have started cracking down on the practice and more states are turning to independent commissions for redistricting. As a result, gerrymandering is less significant than it used to be—at least for federal elections. It did not benefit Republicans overall in this year’s midterms. Republican House candidates received more votes than Democrats by several percentage points nationwide but won only a bare House majority.[1]The Supreme Court’s decision in Moore v. Harper could be a wild card here for the future.
Certification of election results. By the time of the midterms, the main election integrity concern shifted (appropriately) from how votes are cast to how they are counted. Here again, the midterms are cause for optimism as the tide turned against election denial tactics pushed so hard by Trump and his allies. Candidates who actively embraced Trump’s stolen election lies lost most competitive elections. Notably, all election deniers running for state offices with election administration roles in potential swing states lost. In another encouraging sign, losing GOP candidates have so far refrained from invoking Trump’s stolen election line.[2]This could change in Arizona. Finally, Congress appears ready to amend the Electoral Count Act to address abuses in the congressional certification of presidential election results. (See here and here.)
Vote counting delays. One problematic aspect highlighted by the midterms, however, is the excessive time it often takes to count votes. Key electoral results were unknown for days and even weeks following November 8. One reason for this is the closeness of many races, but state voting laws also played a major role. Liberalized voting procedures expand the means and time frames for voting but make vote tabulation more complicated, labor-intensive, and time-consuming. While these procedures may enhance voter participation, the delays they cause can diminish public confidence in the integrity of elections and provide fodder for claims of fraud. States, and jurisdictions within states, vary in how efficiently they deal with vote counting challenges. Another difference is that some states prohibit counting mail-in ballots until election day. Repealing these prohibitions and allowing ballots to be counted as they are received is one obvious means of expediting election results without sacrificing voter convenience.
Abortion was a major issue in some places, but may have less impact on future federal elections.
Exit polls indicate that abortion was an important issue for many voters. The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, overturning Roe v. Wade, probably gave Democrats a significant boost, at least where abortion-related measures were on the ballot or there were other threats to abortion rights. For Republicans, the Dobbs decision was akin to the dog finally catching the car it has been chasing and not knowing what to do next. Republicans who advocated extreme anti-abortion measures that had no consequences with Roe in effect were caught flat-footed once it was overruled. This hurt them politically in the 2022 elections.
Abortion should become more of a state than a national issue in the future. There is little chance Congress will pass major abortion legislation, assuming it could constitutionally do so. Dobbs essentially returned abortion issues to the states, but these issues are complicated and Americans have nuanced views about them. Over time, both anti-abortion and pro-choice absolutists may be forced to move closer to mainstream public opinion as the issues work their way through the democratic process.
The political parties remain disconnected from much of the electorate.
Democrats were more upbeat than Republicans over the election results since the widely predicted “red wave” did not materialize. However, neither party has much to celebrate. Most Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the Nation and with their electoral choices. Almost three-quarters of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and public confidence in most American institutions is quite low. Voters strongly disapprove of both political parties and their leaders. (See here and here.) One pundit described the 2022 midterms as a rerun of the 2020 election: “Voters made the same grudging choice — they rejected the Trumpist style and substance of the G.O.P. but without embracing the Democrats — because they were given the same unappetizing menu.”
Such widespread public disaffection is not surprising. Republican and Democratic partisans are ever more polarized and hostile to each other, as are their respective media echo chambers. They prefer demonizing each other to rational, civil engagement aimed at finding solutions to the Nation’s problems. In all of this, they drift farther away from less ideologically driven independents and moderates who make up the largest segments of the electorate. (See here and here). Even within the parties, most voters fall outside the extremes. Overall, only nine percent of voters identify as “very conservative” and only seven percent as “very liberal.”
On the whole, therefore, American voters are more pragmatic and open to compromise than the activists who increasingly set the agenda for the two political parties. (See here and here.) Indeed, a comprehensive University of Maryland study found broad areas of agreement among the American public and across party lines on a host of major policy issues. The study concluded that the polarization of our politics stems not from the citizenry but from special interests and their lobbyists who lavish money on our politicians and apparently exert greater influence over them than their constituents.
Lessons from the midterms for both parties.
One obvious lesson for Republicans is that they need to somehow exorcise Trump. Granted, this is a tall order. While Trump is almost surely unelectable in 2024, he could win the GOP nomination if his base sticks with him and other candidates split the primary vote. Even if Trump isn’t the GOP nominee, he could play spoiler by discouraging his base from voting or by running as a third-party candidate. Neither prospect is remote since Trump’s only real interest is, of course, himself. Another lesson for Republicans is that even if Trump can be neutralized, they should avoid nominating a Trump clone. While some of Trump’s policies have broad appeal, his extreme divisiveness and combativeness do not.
The first lesson for Democrats is that they can’t rely on Trump continuing to be the gift that keeps on giving. The second is that his involvement masked serious vulnerabilities they need to address. Had Trump stayed out of the midterms, the predicted red wave might well have occurred. Republicans not closely aligned with Trump were generally successful. Also, traditionally overwhelmingly Democratic voting blocs—Hispanics, Asian Americans, and African Americans—continued their modest but noticeable shift away from the party. (See here and here.) Democrats are increasingly tied to a “woke” agenda that resonates with younger, college-educated, mostly white voters as well as the elites who dominate academia and the media but turns off most other voters.
The best overall lesson for both parties—clear from the midterms and long before–is that they could greatly enhance their electoral prospects by moving away from their extremes and closer to the more centrist, commonsense territory where most voters reside. If either party could establish itself as a credible and constructive force for doing the people’s business, it would likely achieve political dominance for years to come.
Footnotes
| ↑1 | The Supreme Court’s decision in Moore v. Harper could be a wild card here for the future. |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | This could change in Arizona. |